Battle for the White House 1

Like a lot of people, I have been gripped by the presidential pantomime across the pond. It’s been a fascinating spectacle and promises to entertain even more in the coming weeks and months.

Here, I will offer my weekly take on those jostling for position to become president and making some bold predictions with the aid of my trusted confidante in New York, the irrepressible Gerry Scott. (http://www.gerryscottusa.com/)

The race for the White House is coming to the boil nicely; well it is for the Democrats. The Republican contest has petered out and it seems certain that John McCain will be confirmed in the very near future as he edges ever closer that magic number of 1,019 delegates needed for the nomination.

The real race and drama involves the Democratic battle which is growing ever bitter as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama slog it out state after state. Gerry is of the opinion that by the time the real campaign starts, the Democrat, whoever it my be (Gerry thinks heart will rule over head and Obama will emerge victorious-just), will have run out of steam, leaving quite an easy route to the White House for John McCain. I disagree and I will tell you why.

America has longed for change ever since that dreadful night when it dawned on half the nation that they were going to have George W Bush as their president. They have waited 8 years and endured much. America’s image, reputation, integrity and standing in the eyes of ordinary folk wherever in the world they happen to be has taken a battering and it needs to be put right.

Change has been the buzz word in this presidential campaign. Like a lot things in the States, there has been an air of phoniness about the campaigns of the runners in each party.

For the Republican candidates, it’s been about egos, deep pockets and in the case of Rudi Giuliani, a massive miscalculation of his worth and popularity. The Republican Party is as divided as ever. Whereas it’s taken quite a fierce two-way battle to split the Democrats, McCain has managed to do the same, by himself. His liberal outlook and readiness to join forces with the Democrats ‘for the sake of the country’ has infuriated the conservatives within the party. McCain is seems is the reluctant choice, partly because others offered even less possibility to uniting the views of Republican America.
Its inevitable McCain will get nod and if he succeeds in getting to the White House, the vote split will be as stark as it was back in 2000. No change is not a change America can ill afford at this time.

I am not convinced by McCain. America is a very different place today than it was 8 years ago and the world has moved on. America has become more self-conscious and people have started to care about what the world thinks of them. McCain has used his Vietnam past to his advantage but being Commander and Chief in the current battle (and I’m talking about a country flirting with recession and war), is going to require steely resolve at home and a stiff upper lip abroad. America needs to mend some seriously broken relationships abroad and McCain isn’t the man to that job.

So on to the real battle for the presidency.

Americans have been dealt a really bad hand this time. In the red corner, a weak Republican lacking the leadership the country will need post the Bush era.

In the blue corner, Team Clinton and the great pretender, Barack Obama. The former has to contend with the shadowy figure of former President and husband Bill, forever a thorn in her side. Hillary is caught between a rock and a hard place. She knows that she alone cannot win with the Democrat nomination or the presidency and at the same time, his mere presence in the campaign trail reminds people of the legacy of Bill. He is both her strength and her weakness. In the end, she will prevail and not only will pip Obama to the Democratic post but she will also take the White House.

The reason I feel Hillary will get to the nod is not because she is the best suited for the role of President, far from it. She will have the edge on Obama purely because America is not quite ready to embrace Barack. Much has been made about his background, lack of proven track record, untested at home or abroad and splitting America and they are all true.

Obama is straight out of the Blair school of statesmen, great orator, impeccable presentation, camera friendly, charismatic and lacking any substance. You only have to listen to him speak, state after state, hour after hour, he reiterates the same message. The difference is rather than sounding like a broken record; he carries off the same slogans and sound bites with breathtaking confidence and lures the audience into a false sense of security that a seasoned evangelical preacher would be proud of. Herein lies his attraction.

Like many preachers, Obama captivates and draws attention not to what he is saying but he manner in which he delivers it. Obama has people in a daze and that may last till the home straight in the Democratic race but Democrat America will see through it. They will ignore the promises of the messiah and opt for the devil they know.

It will be fun while it lasts. Obama is giving it his all and has so far proved a worthy rival for Clinton. Much of America has fallen for the boyish charms and charisma of Obama and many are of the opinion that since he will not last the course, they will help him give Hillary bloody nose and a run for her money. In the end, Democrat America will recognise that Barack has peaked too soon and America itself is not ready to be that bold, just yet.

It’s neck and neck and going right to the wire and we are fascinated by the spectacle. The reality is so much hinges on America making the right choice because the consequences for getting it wrong again will be catastrophic for them and the world at large.