Why Obama must be more white than black

Up until last week, the Republican Party had been successful in defining the 2008 presidential election as a contest not of the past versus the future, the Democrats versus the Republicans, but between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Their logic was that as long as the Americans were asked to choose between a white "war hero" and a black of questionable heritage, people would choose wisely.It is common knowledge that as long as the election is a referendum on Obama, he is going to lose; if it is about issues then the republicans will struggle. Republicans boast that this is not going to be an election about issues but more about personalities.

The Republicans attempted to separate Obama from his own party. Their strategy has been to single out Obama and present him not as the Democratic Party nominee but a dubious black man.Unfortunately for the Republicans, the events in Wall Street this week has forced John McCain to talk about something he dreads, the economy. He is on record as saying that he does not understand the economy.

The polls have shown that the net result of the "Palin effect" is that more white women now support Obama than did before, and that 75% of Americans believe that McCain picked Palin not for her competence but to help him win. Polls show that only 36% of white males will vote for Obama. Republicans use the fact that over 90% of the blacks will vote for Obama only as a rallying cry. But the fact is blacks have voted for whites all their lives including Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry picks holes in that argument.Obama cannot be complacent.

Only now is he beginning to feel the full venom of the McCain sting. He has to keep attacking McCain and remember the Bradley effect - many whites say they will vote for a black candidate - but in the privacy of the voting booth do not.

Unless Obama is ahead by at least 7 points, he is not going to win.The Obama campaign sometimes forgets that he is not like any other Democratic nominee. He is black, and to win must minimise his blackness. To reassure whites he must surround himself with whites at all times.